One of the benefits of having a model is that we can play with it to see how the championship odds would be different if certain events happen/happened. That’s what I’m going to be doing today.
Will Power didn’t race in St. Petersburg because he had concussion-like symptoms, so he scored zero points in round one. What if he had just (carefully) whipped the car around the track once? Coming in and retiring after the first lap would have put him in P22, securing him eight points. Here’s how the championship odds would be different:
Current odds for Power to win: 29.3%
Odds if Power had scored eight points in round one: 32.1
What about if the first race hadn’t happened at all? That would put Power 15 points ahead of Pagenaud in the points standings right now. Here’s how that would change the picture:
Current odds for Power to win: 29.3
Odds if first race didn’t happen: 63.0