After a crazy Saturday night at Texas that saw the win decided by 0.008 seconds, Pagenaud heads to Watkins Glen in firm control of the championship. His title odds sit at just over 70 percent with two races — both road courses — left to go, according to our model.
Power has a 29.3 percent chance of winning the championship, primarily because of the double points on offer out in California. That ensures that the title won’t be decided this weekend.
This leaves the field with a 0.6 percent chance of pulling the ultimate upset.
Oh and for those of you who are looking forward to a championship that will be extremely close: don’t hold your breath. There’s just a 13 percent chance the championship will be decided by less than 10 points.