State of the Championship: Dixon Maintains Early Edge

The season has started and that means The Single Seater’s championship simulations are running. Things are pretty similar in the simulation as last season. We simulate each remaining race using our Elo ratings, add up the points earned in those races, and add them to how many points drivers currently have in the championship. We run these simulations “hot” so drivers can gain or lose Elo rating points during the simulations which allows for more variation in the outcomes and reflects the truth that we don’t know everything about driver performance and it might change as the season goes on.

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Transaction Analysis: Rosenqvist Takes Askew’s Seat at AMSP

Felix Rosenqvist is taking over Oliver Askew’s seat at Arrow McLaren SP for the 2021 season. The 29 year-old Rosenqvist is moving from the team that helped Scott Dixon win another IndyCar title, Chip Ganassi Racing, to a team that has done some restructuring in the past year as the combination of McLaren and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports and hired two young drivers. Rosenqvist finished eleventh in the championship in 2020, just ahead of his teammate Marcus Ericsson by fifteen points. In a year where Dixon won the championship, both of his teammates would have liked to put up better performances for themselves too.

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State of the Championship: Looking Past the Champion We Can Still Find Excitement

Usually these posts are almost exclusively centered on the battle to win the IndyCar championship, but Scott Dixon has made that a lot less exciting to write about this season. Assuming the Mid Ohio doubleheader gets scheduled for September like is planned, we will have five more races this season to enjoy. Dixon currently has a 96 point lead in the points standings and our projections give him a 99.9% chance of winning the 2020 IndyCar Championship. The only other driver with a slim chance of winning is Josef Newgarden, who has about a 1 in 1000 chance of pulling off a miraculous late season challenge to Dixon.

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