Threads: Evaluating The Single Seater’s Elo Ratings and Predicting DNFs

I wrote two Twitter threads over the past week or so that I wanted to share here in case anyone doesn’t follow on Twitter or missed them.

The first is a thread on evaluating how well The Single Seater’s Elo projection model did this year. I looked at the percentage of matchups it correctly predicted as well as a calibration plot of the actual vs. projected results.

The second thread looked at whether or not DNFs in IndyCar are really as unpredictable as people say they are. I looked at this from both the season and race level and found some interesting results.

I might dig a little deeper into these topics in the future and write a full post, but if anyone has anything particular they would like expanded on please let me know in the comments here!

Header Photo: Chris Owens/IndyCar

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